Since 2020-21, India’s merchandise exports fell for the first time in four years in FY24 to $437.06 billion, while, in contrast, services exports grew by 4.4% to a record $339.62 billion, compensating for the 3.11% contraction in goods exports, according to recent official data. While this data is not that bad, particularly in the background of geopolitical tensions, some recent developments in our foreign trade trends are worth watching.

It is interesting to see that our exports to China rose 8.07% in 2023-24, reaching $16.67 billion at a time while there is a downturn in China’s imports from the world. On the other hand, imports from China saw a moderate growth of 3.39%. While the data shows India’s resilience in its trade with China, some leading categories of exports to the country– cotton yarn, quartz, iron ore and concentrates – indicate our diverse exports portfolio.

India’s exports to Europe – one of our major trade partners – registered moderate increase despite tepid economic growth in the region. According to official data, merchandise exports to the region witnessed 2% Y-o-Y growth at $98 billion during 2023. This is encouraging, but the ongoing Red Sea crisis could derail this growth as nearly 80% of the outbound shipments to Europe takes place through this route.